08.03.2026 (Caucasian Journal). In this insightful interview, Caucasian Journal welcomes Thomas de WAAL, senior fellow at Carnegie Europe and one of the world's foremost experts on the South Caucasus. Reflecting on over three decades of experience, de Waal discusses the profound shifts reshaping the region following the mass exodus of the Armenian community from Nagorno-Karabakh—a scenario that once seemed unthinkable. He shares a cautiously optimistic view, suggesting that while the human tragedy is immense, the "age of conflict" between Armenia and Azerbaijan may finally be giving way to a new era of normalization.
The conversation delves into the critical challenges ahead, from the fate of Armenian detainees in Baku to Prime Minister Pashinyan’s precarious political standing ahead of the June 2026 elections. De Waal also analyzes the "American moment" in the region, including the strategic implications of the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP). Whether the South Caucasus can transform into a stable, integrated transit hub or remains a "sandwich" between rival powers is the central question of this timely discussion.
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