22.06.2026 (Caucasian Journal) Caucasian Journal's guest today is Shujaat AHMADZADA, an independent analyst and the editor at the Caucasus Edition: Journal of Conflict Transformation.
Alexander KAFFKA, editor-in-chief of Caucasian Journal: Dear Shujaat, welcome. Azerbaijan–Armenia normalisation — and perhaps Armenia–Turkey normalisation as well — increasingly appear to be the key drivers of wider transformation in the South Caucasus. How do you assess the current dynamics? What factors are slowing progress, and what must be done now to broaden the current breakthrough?
Shujaat AHMADZADA: Indeed, we are witnessing what I would call the emergence of a new geopolitical axis between Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Türkiye. Something unthinkable even five years ago. The axis remains in its early inception, not yet institutionalized, but at this pace we could see that change before long.
Peace and reconciliation are not the same thing. Institutionalization without societal reconciliation produces a peace that is brittle and reversible.
The biggest obstacle to institutionalizing peace is that the rivalry between Armenia and Azerbaijan became so entrenched over the past three decades that deep mistrust persists. We are not dealing with an episodic dispute to be resolved overnight; we are dealing with an entire what I’d call “Architecture of Enmity” that has to be dismantled. That architecture is not only the perception of the Other, it is the whole infrastructure of rivalry built to sustain that perception. Detaching from it will take time.
