A Rainy Night in Georgia

20.06.2020. Aspen Review is a Prague-based journal published by Aspen Institute Central Europe, which is an official partner of Caucasian Journal.  Last year CJ interviewed  Jiří Schneider - Executive Director of Aspen Institute Central Europe (read here), and this year Aspen Review published an article by Alexander Kaffka, editor-in-chief of Caucasian Journal. 

Today we repost Alexander KAFFKA's article "A Rainy Night in Georgia" with permission of our partner Aspen Review. Editor's note: This article was written before the pandemic.

If the ‘Anna Karenina principle’ could be applied to states, it would sound as follows: All the full democracies are alike, but every hybrid democracy is hybrid in its own way.

After 2004’s Rose Revolution led by Mikheil Saakashvili, Georgia won the admiration of the international community as it went from the brink of a failed state to an exemplary leader of democracy and successful market reforms. Other post-Soviet nations looked with much excitement at what appeared to be a fantastic achievement in combating corruption at all levels, unthinkable in their own countries. Digitalization of government services brought online convenience to every household, placing Georgia in the world’s top countries in terms of its ease in doing business, and in fact even becoming exportable know-how.

Aspen Ministers Forum: 27 Foreign Ministers Issue Call for UN

June 14, 2020. Caucasian Journal is happy to share and support this Aspen Institute's initiative. We are proud to have two European Aspen Institutes among our official partners. The statement below was released by members of the Aspen Ministers Forum on June 12, 2020. The signatories are acting in a personal capacity, and this statement does not represent an official position taken by the Aspen Ministers Forum or the Aspen Institute.

We are a group of former foreign ministers from every region of the world, who bring to bear decades of experience in conducting international diplomacy, responding to crises, and reforming international institutions. Never before have we seen a challenge as acute, complex, far-reaching, and potentially long-lasting as the COVID-19 pandemic. While many nations have been able to implement effective interventions through social distancing, testing and contact tracing, the first wave of the virus is not yet over and the pandemic continues to pose a risk to the lives and livelihoods of people in every nation on earth.

Photo: Aspen Institute

As with many of the threats we face, the virus does not respect boundaries and therefore cannot be defeated by any country acting alone. To respond to this pandemic and prevent future outbreaks, nations must combine their strengths.

We have seen the benefits that cooperative action can bring. During our careers, world leaders worked to build and strengthen regional and global institutions to spur development, prevent war, promote health, regulate trade, and prosecute crimes against humanity. Although certainly not every decision made was the right one, the mechanisms created helped resolve dangerous conflicts and brought about unprecedented gains in alleviating poverty, expanding literacy, and containing the ravages of communicable diseases.

Ambassador Ran GIDOR: "We’ve been spending too much time toasting each other"

13.06.2020 (Caucasian Journal) Today Caucasian Journal has the honour to talk with the newly appointed Israeli ambassador to Georgia, Mr. Ran GIDOR. His term in Tbilisi started last January. 

Mr. Gidor is not a newcomer in Georgia: Being a career diplomat, he was appointed as deputy ambassador in Tbilisi (accredited to Georgia and Armenia) back in 1997. His subsequent experience included positions of Cultural and Academic attaché in Beijing, Political Counsellor in London, Director of UN Political Affairs Department, and Ambassador to Cameroon, the Central African Republic, Equatorial Guinea, Congo and Gabon.

Alexander KAFFKA, editor-in-chief of Caucasian Journal: Your Excellency, welcome to Caucasian Journal, we thank you for attention to our readers. I know it became commonplace to talk about the coronavirus, but in your case I cannot help asking: How does it feel to start an Ambassador’s term in an unprecedented lockdown? I understand that just weeks after arrival in Tbilisi you found yourself isolated at home and unable to travel, being cut from essential parts of every diplomat’s work.

Ran GIDOR: Thank you, Alexander, for the opportunity to address your readers. Yes, you’re absolutely right, COVID-19 has “turned the tables” (so to speak…) on all our original work plans for 2020 and forced us to cancel virtually every major project in the pipeline. However, now we’re ‘regrouping’ and learning how to implement some new ideas in innovative and unconventional ways. As always, what starts as a threat or a disaster – can be turned into an opportunity, if we’re prepared to rise to the challenge.

Valeri CHEKHERIA: "We are shaping new Georgia and placing it on world map"

05.06.2020 (Caucasian Journal) Is Georgia prepared to welcoming foreign tourists next month? How does the big business coordinate actions with the government in hospitality sector, which is strategic for Georgia? Do corporations play a role in formation of civil society?

Our today's guest is Valeri CHEKHERIA, CEO of Adjara Group. His name is not only behind some of the Georgia's newest and most iconic hotels, but also in many board lists of important non-profit organizations.

Alexander KAFFKA, editor-in-chief of Caucasian Journal: Dear Valeri, welcome to Caucasian Journal. Last year we planned to talk about your success story of interaction between business and civil society, and the Democracy Frontline Center, and I hope we will touch this today. But now the whole world is turned upside down by the pandemic, which is the top factor everywhere – and especially in tourism-dependent businesses such as yours. How severely your hospitality projects have been hit by COVID measures? 

Valeri CHEKHERIA: The tourism industry was hit the most with hospitality sector experiencing extensive losses globally. Certainly, we are no exception and we have suffered severely from the effects of the pandemic. We had to close down all our hotels and put on hold the development of the ongoing projects. 

Dr. Laurence BROERS: "There won’t be Armenian-Azerbaijani Dayton*"

27.05.2020 (Caucasian Journal) Caucasian Journal talks with Dr. Laurence BROERS, well-known expert on conflicts in the South Caucasus with over 20 years’ experience, both as a researcher and a practitioner of peacebuilding initiatives in the region. 

Dr. Broers is the Caucasus programme director at London-based NGO Conciliation Resources. He is Associate Fellow at Royal Institute of International Affairs (Chatham House), author or editor of several books, including Armenia and Azerbaijan: Anatomy of a Rivalry, and co-editor-in-chief of Caucasus Survey.

Alexander KAFFKA, editor-in-chief of Caucasian Journal:  Dear Dr. Broers, welcome to Caucasian Journal. We’ve wanted to talk with you since a long while, and today we have this lucky possibility thanks to an important development – the release of a new documentary about the Karabakh conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan (to watch video, scroll down to page bottom). You have agreed to introduce this film for our readers. Allow my first question – how do you visualize the target viewers group of the documentary?

Laurence BROERS: On 12 May we released online a documentary film called Parts of a Circle: History of the Karabakh Conflict. The film chronicles the disputed history of more than 30 years of this conflict, in an Armenian-Azerbaijani co-production. It is a locally led project, in which the scripts were written, interviewees selected and films produced by local teams of Armenian and Azerbaijani journalists. The project actually began in 2011 but for a number of reasons it has taken until now to be ready for the public release. The film we have recently released is actually a shorter version, at 76 minutes, of a longer 3-hour trilogy. The short film is in English, and it is intended for an international audience that is not necessarily familiar with the Karabakh conflict. The longer trilogy has considerably more detail and is intended more for a local and a specialist audience.

Caucasian Journal offers free advertising as support for businesses, calls for other mass medias to join

We know that many businesses – both small and big – are impacted by the outbreak of Covid-19. Many companies face a long road ahead as they try to rebuild themselves following the lockdown. In this difficult time, we believe that businesses must show maximum support to each other.

We’ve listened to businesses to understand how we can support them. Caucasian Journal and its sister business news sites decided to give companies struggling in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic free advertising.

Today we are glad to announce that from 22 May all the companies in Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan will be eligible to apply for free banner advertising to use across the Caucasian Journal and our sister business news sites. 

Professor Ramaz KURASHVILI: "Georgia is lucky to have world-class virologists with independent thinking"

20.05.2020 (Caucasian Journal) Professor Ramaz KURASHVILI is one of Georgia’s leading medical professionals, Director of Center for Diabetes Research in Tbilisi, Chairman of Union of Diabetic and Endocrinological Associations of Georgia, and a member of Caucasian Journal’s Board. 

We have asked Professor Kurashvili to share his views about Georgia’s response to COVID-19.

Caucasian Journal: You have large professional experience, not only medical, but also experience in the management and administration of medical institutions. How do you assess the medical and organizational level of the anti-pandemic activities in Georgia?

Ramaz KURASHVILI: The epidemic is far from over, however, we can evaluate the measures taken by the Georgian government and Georgian epidemiological virologists to date. We can say that the State Coronavirus Commission works highly efficiently: Epidemiologists, virologists, infectious disease specialists, family doctors, healthcare organizers, the police, military, media, television have actively joined in the fight against coronavirus infection; it should be noted that all television channels (in particular, Channel 1 of Georgian Television) and the media work smoothly, there are no cases of dissemination of false or panic information. Of particular note is the high authority, level of knowledge and experience of the Leading infectious diseases specialist prof. T. Tsertsvadze, Director General of the National Center for Disease Control and Public Health of Georgia prof. A. Gamkrelidze, Deputy Director of the Center prof. P. Imnadze, all the doctors of those centers that today are treating the coronavirus patients. We should thank the leaders and staff of the Ministry of Health of Georgia and the Autonomous Republic of Adjara, and the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Georgia Mr. D. Zalkaliani. Of particular note is the Prime Minister of Georgia, Mr. G. Gakharia, thanks to his efficiency, openness, and close mutually beneficial cooperation with doctors, it was possible to slow down the growth of the epidemic and to control the situation; time was used effectively to prepare healthcare for a pandemic, to create specialized centers, equip existing clinics and prepare them for patients, purchase and deliver the necessary number of tests, organize quarantine zones two-week quarantine, etc. - i.e. not to meet the blow unprepared.

Ambassador Per EKLUND: "COVID is unpredictable. I had a lucky escape"

12.05.2020 (Caucasian Journal).The Swedish response to COVID-19 is in the focus of the world's attention today. But how does it feel to recover from coronavirus in a Swedish hospital? And when the patient happens to be a former ambassador to Georgia, Caucasus Journal is especially keen about his comments.

Today we are honoured to introduce a very special guest – Ambassador Per EKLUND, Senior Fellow at the Institute for Security and Development Policy in Stockholm, former EU Ambassador to Georgia – a person widely known and deeply respected in the South Caucasus. 

He planned to spend this May in Georgia and to meet with us in person, but as COVID interrupted, instead of Tbilisi he had to go to a Stockholm's hospital. Now, after the worst is over, Ambassador Eklund has got a very unique mix of experiences, which he is sharing with our readers.

Alexander KAFFKA, editor-in-chief of CJ: Welcome to Caucasian Journal, Mr. Ambassador, and thank you for finding time for this interview. I am very glad to see you in good health after catching the notorious coronavirus infection. Allow me a somewhat personal question first. Earlier this year you celebrated your 75th birthday. Do you agree that senior citizens should follow stricter isolation rules? Should they be extra careful themselves, or is it a task for the authorities to establish different conditions for people over 60?

Per EKLUND: Well, persons who are 70+ should be careful, as we are, generally speaking, part of the risk group. And I was careful and yet got infected. And although I was in good shape, with no other diseases, no diabetes, no overweight and a non-smoker, I got severely ill. This was my second time in a hospital bed, the first was 1945, at my birth!

AK: Oh, really? And how does it feel to get through a COVID-19, especially in a severe case? Do you have a guess how you got infected?

Sebastian MOLINEUS of World Bank: "We've been working with the Governments of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia since day 1 of this crisis"

22.04.2020 (Caucasian Journal) The economies of South Caucasian countries will be severely hit in long time perspective due to global pandemic – from tourism decline and (in case of Azerbaijan) from oil price drop.  As World Bank is known for economic forecasting, Caucasian Journal asked for professional comment from Sebastian MOLINEUS -  WB Regional Director for the South Caucasus.

Caucasian Journal: How does World Bank assess the economic consequences of pandemic in the countries of South Caucasus?

Sebastian MOLINEUS: The COVID-19 pandemic is presenting an unprecedented economic challenge for the world and is certainly having an impact on the economies of all three countries in the South Caucasus Region.

Indeed, the pandemic is occurring at an already fragile time for the Europe and Central Asian region, including the South Caucasus. Growth in Europe and Central Asia had already decelerated to 2.2 percent in 2019. And since February 2020, the region has faced an increasingly uphill battle to cope with the pandemic as it interrupts daily activity, puts further downward pressure on commodity prices, disrupts tightly linked global and regional supply chains, reduces travel and tourist arrivals, and decreases demand for exports from and within the economies in the region.  As a consequence, most forecasts, including the WB’s Europe and Central Asia Economic (spring) Update, project a contraction in global and regional GDP in 2020.

By how much?  The projections this time around are subject to significant uncertainty. How long the recession will last, and its severity will depend on the duration of the pandemic. The scenarios in the ECA Economic Update suggest regional GDP could contract by 2.8 percent in case the outbreak is largely contained by the second half of the year and measures to stop the spread of the virus are lifted, but the contraction could reach as much as 4.4 percent in case efforts to contain the outbreak spill into the third quarter of 2020.

COVID update: Georgia follows Japan trajectory, for now

As COVID-19 infections in Georgia continue to grow slowly but steadily, it is time to take a closer look at how this development compares with the outbreaks in other countries. While Georgia is on the same trajectory as Japan, it currently falls short of the benchmark set by some other wealthy east Asian countries. 

14.04.2020. This is the  conclusion made by Dr. Lorenz HILFIKER, a Swiss mathematician based in Tbilisi. With his kind permission, Caucasian Journal is publishing the findings he posted in his blog, which provides data-focused coverage of the COVID-19 crisis in Georgia.

The first cases in Georgia were confirmed around the same time as in many European countries. Yet, the virus has so far spread considerably less than in most of the Western world.

For example, my native country Switzerland recorded its first case on February 25, just one day before Georgia. Today (April 10) the tally for Switzerland stands at about 24 thousand confirmed cases and one thousand fatalities, while Georgia has recorded merely 230 cases and three fatalities to date.

Here is a chart of all countries which have reached 100 cumulative confirmed cases at least a week ago (thin grey lines).

Сlick to enlarge.    Image (c) Lorenz Hilfiker

A straight line in this chart corresponds to exponential growth with a fixed transmission rate. The steeper the slope of a line, the faster the spread of the virus. The four dashed lines indicate exponential growth where cases double daily, every third day, every week and every two weeks, respectively.